Two weeks today I will be?

Two weeks today I will be?

No one can quite answer that question.  I can tell you that I hope to be well into the marathon portion of my Ironman.  this hope is based on the fact that it is 4:30 in the afternoon and the race starts at 07:00 in the AM.  So if I plan on 1.5 hour swim and a 7 hour bike I should start the run at 3:30 in the afternoon.

Plans great plans.  The hosts on the sports radio here in Dallas have a great saying; "everyone has a plan until you get hit on the chin".  I think this saying has its origins in the Buster Douglas/ Mike Tyson heavyweight title fight.  Mike Tyson was expected to beat Buster into the mat.  Unfortunately for Tyson, Douglas tagged him hard early in the fight and it was all down hill from there.  You can have the greatest plan in the world  but your legs are wobbly and your head is spinning you may have to come up with "plan B".

In a race as long as an Ironman you are guaranteed to take one on the chin.  It could happen in the water, on the bike or run.  It could happen in transition or even getting into or out of transition.  You better be prepared to:
have your goggles knocked off
have someone swim over you
cramps
losing your bearings
tripping or slipping coming out of the water
not finding a piece of equipment right away
flat tires
weather differences
sore feet
sore arms
sore everything

you get the idea.

Generally it is no different than risk management.  You address risk in two ways, Mitigation and contingency.  Mitigation is addressed by reducing the possibility of a risk being realized.  New tires and tubes will reduce the possibility of a flat.  Proper positioning on the  swim will reduce the possibility of having your googles knocked off.  Contingency is a set of responses that you would take if a risk does occur.  Carrying tubes and CO2 canisters on the bike in case a flat does occur.

But do you address contingency and mitigation for an unknown risk?  You can only plan and reduce the possibility of something that you foresee happening.  You can only have a "Plan B" when your "plan A" fails for a known reason.  How do you get back into the race when your wheels entirely fall off?

This is like any other risk, you mitigate and have contingency plans.  You mitigate the unknown by doing your homework.  I have competed in over 50 triathlons.  I have learned a few things along the way.  I have coaches that offer advice.  I can reach out to others who have raced this course before.  I do not race in a vacuum.  As for contingency you need a mentality that allows you to analyze a situation and think on the fly.  To keep your head while those about you are losing theirs.

A couple of things to keep in the back of your mind:

1.) Stuff will happen get over it
2.) It will happen to everyone not just you
3.) Since it will happen to everyone it will be the person who deals with it most effectively that will be most successful.